Small Tries, Not One Big Bet
Picture a woman named Rina who has wanted to live abroad for a long time and who keeps waiting to be sure. She wants to know that a place will suit her before she moves anything, and nobody can tell her that in advance.
A friend suggests another approach. Instead of one big decision, Rina could run a series of small tries and learn from each one.
Her first try is a month in a rental in a city she picked from a magazine. It costs about $2,500. By the second week she is bored, and she learns that she wants a smaller city.
Her second try is a town with a lovely square. After two weeks she finds that the nearest hospital is a long drive away, and that matters to her more than she expected. She leaves early.
The third is fine. Nothing is wrong and nothing is special. She learns what fine feels like, which helps her recognize the difference.
The fourth becomes home. She signs a one-year lease before the month is over.
Four tries cost about $10,000 and ended with a place she chose and did not have to guess at.
Say each try has only a one in ten chance of working, and the tries are independent. Ten tries give about a 65 percent chance that at least one works. Twenty tries give about 88 percent. In real life each try teaches you something, so the later ones may do better than that.
One big bet gets one answer. A series of small tries gets a new answer each time, and each answer is cheaper.
You may feel you cannot know until you commit. Small tries let you commit a little at a time.
The size of each try is the part to design. Rina’s was a month and $2,500. Yours could be a week, or an afternoon. You could build one that costs little and can be undone.
Our calculator can help with the sizing. It shows what a month and what a year would cost in each country before you spend any money.
What is the smallest try you could run this season? Tell us in the comments. Someone reading may be about to run their first.
Tell us in the comments