Will the money last?
Start from how much to bring, then see what a mix of stocks and bonds, and how sure you want to be, does to that number.
Level of lifeCarried over from How much to bring. Change it here and the numbers change.
Hold and be sure the money lasts. You’ll need:
in dollars
Compare the choices
How we test a choice, and what this leaves out
How we test a choice
We replay the plan starting in every year of US history we have, from 1928 on. Each starting year lives through the real stock returns and price rises that followed. We count how many starting years made it.
The bond part earns today's yield on TIPS bonds, which are US government bonds that keep up with US prices, which keep up with US prices. Stocks earn what a broad US stock index actually earned. The mix is reset to your chosen split each year.
The past century was a strong one for US stocks. The next one may not be.
Dividends and currencies
"For life" spends only the income, so the money itself is kept. Dividend choices are tested on the dividends of the whole S&P 500 since 1928, because the lists of long-time dividend raisers only go back a few decades. Companies leave those lists when they cut. 3M did in 2024 after more than 60 years of raises.
With the local currency switched on, each starting year also lives through that country's real exchange rate and price changes since 1960, from World Bank data. Changing dollars into local money costs 3% each time, except in countries that use the US dollar.
Some of these countries were much poorer in 1960. As they grew, their prices rose toward US prices, so a dollar bought less there each decade. That may not repeat.
Social Security estimates use the 2026 benefit formula and earnings cap of $184,500. Above the top 10%, benefits barely grow, because earnings above the cap are not counted. Income is counted in US dollars, so with the local currency switched on it carries the same exchange rate effect as TIPS.
Local government bonds are not tested against history. They depend on that government paying.
Type a monthly amount, or fill it in from a country and a level of life.
Before tax, renting your home.
Used to show future amounts in the dollars of that year, and to shrink any fixed income. 3.4% matches the rest of the site.
Bonds keep the number steady. Stocks can need less money, or more, depending on the years you happen to live through.
Every amount on this page is worked out for the year you reach this age.
For your own number, choose Yes above. You can find it at ssa.gov/myaccount.
In today's dollars, before tax. To find yours, go to ssa.gov/myaccount, sign in or create a free account, and open Your Social Security Statement. It lists your monthly estimate at 62, at full retirement age and at 70. Enter the one you plan to use, and the age it starts. Type 0 if you won't receive any.
The starting choices follow the Congressional Budget Office: it projects the Social Security trust funds running out in 2034, with benefits then about 23% smaller, so the cut starts in 2035. These are projections, not decisions: Congress can change the law. Choose your own year and size.
Social Security rises each year with US prices, like TIPS.
It starts when you stop working. A fixed amount buys a little less each year.