The chance of reaching 90, for one person and for a couple
Suppose two people, both 65, sit down to plan how long their money should last. One says thirty years, which ends at 95.
How likely is it that either of them is alive then?
The chance of reaching an age is the share of people of the same age and sex who are still alive at that age. It uses current death rates. For a couple, we also ask for the chance that at least one is alive.
We worked these out with World Health Organization death rates for the United States in 2019. The man and the woman each have two of the five healthy habits, which is about average.
Chance of reaching each age, starting at 65 (our calculation, United States, average habits)
| Age | Man | Woman | At least one | Both |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 65% | 74% | 91% | 49% |
| 85 | 46% | 58% | 77% | 27% |
| 90 | 25% | 32% | 49% | 8% |
| 95 | 9% | 12% | 20% | 1% |
| 100 | 2% | 2% | 4% | under 1% |
Published tables give a check. They put a 65-year-old man's chance of reaching 90 at 25% and a woman's at 37%. For a couple, they give 53% that at least one reaches 90.
Our figure for men matches. Ours for women is 32% against 37%, and for the couple 49% against 53%. The published figures use a 2026 table. Ours use 2019 tables and a fitted curve past 85. The truth is likely between the two.
The couple figure is one minus the chance that neither is alive. That treats the two lives as unrelated. Couples tend to share habits and surroundings. Their lives may be linked, and then the chance that at least one reaches a late age could be a little lower.
Habits move these numbers. In a study of US health professionals, people with all five habits had about a quarter of the death risk of people with none. We applied that effect to a person with four habits instead of two.
Chance of reaching each age, starting at 65 (our calculation, United States, four of five habits)
| Age | Man | Woman | At least one |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 38% | 44% | 65% |
| 95 | 18% | 21% | 35% |
| 100 | 5% | 6% | 11% |
The habit effect comes from people who are healthier than average. It may be smaller for other groups.
In the first table, the chance that both are alive falls from 49% at 80 to 8% at 90. The later ages are more often reached by one of the two than by both.
Now return to the plan. A plan that runs 30 years from 65 ends at 95. For two people with average habits, at least one is alive then about one time in five. With four of five habits, about one in three.
A 25-year plan ends at 90. Then the chance is about one in two. A 20-year plan ends at 85. Then it is about three in four.
Whether to plan for the later ages is a choice. The table shows what each choice covers. These numbers describe groups of people and say nothing about how long one couple will live.
Which age would you choose to plan for, and why? Tell us in the comments. Someone may see their own reason in yours.
Sources we read
World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory, life tables for 2019 (United States, men and women). https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/life-expectancy-at-age-60-(years)
Probabilities of living past 80 and 90 for men, women and couples at 65, based on the Social Security period life table. https://myannuitystore.com/resources/life-expectancy-tables/
Li and others, Impact of healthy lifestyle factors on life expectancies in the US population, Circulation, 2018. https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.117.032047
Our life expectancy calculator on this site (method and assumptions). https://claude.ai/artifact/UgScC4Cit4CGiZZMkP41Wi
Tell us in the comments