Why life expectancy at birth says little about a 60-year-old
Suppose you are 60 and you read that life expectancy in your country is 78.7 years. The country may be the United States, or Mexico, or Japan.
The sum seems simple. Subtract 60 and 18.7 years remain.
The World Health Organization's life tables show why that sum may leave out years. Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a group of newborns would live if death rates stayed where they were that year. It counts everyone, including babies and people who died in their twenties.
Someone who has reached 60 has already passed those years. So the tables also give a second figure: the age the average 60-year-old is expected to reach.
Life expectancy at birth and at 60, both sexes, 2019 (World Health Organization)
| Country | At birth | Share reaching 60 | Age reached if 60 | Extra years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 84.5 | 94.8% | 86.7 | 2.2 |
| Switzerland | 83.5 | 95.2% | 85.5 | 2.0 |
| Spain | 83.1 | 94.2% | 85.4 | 2.3 |
| United States | 78.7 | 88.8% | 83.2 | 4.5 |
| Colombia | 78.0 | 89.6% | 82.7 | 4.7 |
| Mexico | 75.8 | 84.5% | 82.2 | 6.4 |
| Brazil | 75.5 | 85.6% | 81.3 | 5.8 |
| India | 70.7 | 80.3% | 78.5 | 7.8 |
Extra years is the age reached at 60 minus the life expectancy at birth. We calculated it.
In the United States, the figure at birth is 78.7. For someone who has reached 60, the expected age is 83.2, which is 4.5 years more than the headline. In India the difference is 7.8 years. In Japan it is 2.2.
The difference follows the share of people who die before 60. In Japan that share is 5.2%. In the United States it is 11.2%. In India it is 19.7%. Where fewer people die early, the headline figure is closer to what a 60-year-old can expect.
A second pattern appears when you compare countries. Japan and the United States differ by 5.8 years at birth. For people who have reached 60, they differ by 3.5 years. Japan and Mexico differ by 8.7 years at birth and 4.5 at 60. Japan and India differ by 13.8 and 8.2.
If you are comparing countries at 60, the gap between them may be smaller than the headline figures suggest. The age-reached column is the one that matches your age.
Averages for a whole country also hide differences inside it. In Spain in 2023, the most prosperous and the most disadvantaged provinces differed in life expectancy by 3.59 years.
The years after 60 are not all lived in full health. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reports healthy life years at 60 for its member countries. In 2021 they averaged 18.3 for women and 16.2 for men. Japan, Korea and Spain reported over 20 for women. That count is shorter than life expectancy at 60, because it leaves out years lived with illness or injury.
These tables are for 2019, the last year before the pandemic. They are published in five-year age groups. We used them for the calculators on this site because later years carry the effects of the pandemic.
If you read 78.7 at 60, the same tables give 83.2 for the average person who has reached 60. That figure applies to your age.
Which figure were you using when you thought about the years ahead? Tell us in the comments. Someone may be using the other one.
Sources we read
World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory, life tables for 2019 (life expectancy at birth and at age 60, and number of survivors at age 60 per 100,000 births, both sexes). https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/life-expectancy-at-age-60-(years)
List of Spanish provinces by life expectancy (2023 gap between provinces). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Spanish_provinces_by_life_expectancy
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Health at a Glance 2025, healthy life years at 60. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/health-at-a-glance-2025_8f9e3f98-en/full-report/life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy-at-older-ages_599cf359.html
Tell us in the comments